Schedule Estimate Risk Analysis (SERA)

Scheduling Around Uncertainty

A detailed schedule is the road map for the successful execution of capital projects, shutdowns, turnarounds and outages. However, it is not uncommon to see management embrace unrealistic schedule performance expectations which are based on observed Industry productivity, leading to events that miss their schedule targets.

Schedule Estimate Risk Analysis (SERA) from AP-Networks is an industry-leading schedule risk analysis service. Through SERA, we provide a powerful, proven solution for improving schedule predictability. Our proprietary methodology provides a structured format for producing a realistic schedule estimate reflective of uncertainties and risks that a project, shutdown, turnaround or outage might face.

The SERA service includes an in-depth review of the risks and uncertainties that influence schedule duration outcomes, followed by an assessment of the key schedule drivers and the likely range for key milestone dates. Our veteran team possesses extensive project and turnaround schedule development knowledge that they leverage to drive final deliverables. 

At the end of a SERA engagement, your team has a stronger understanding of scheduling for your current project and deeper understanding of how to build more accurate schedule estimates for future events.

Summary

The SERA process includes the following:

• Identify Project or STO Risks: This evaluation is done in a group workshop setting, where threats and opportunites are identified within the event scope.
• Assess Schedule Impacts: Using data, we model potential impacts of uncertainties and risks based on potential variability, impact and the probability of occurrence. 
• Build A SERA Model: Using collected data, we build a SERA Model S-curve that shows the overall duration of the project or STO, as well as S-curves for other milestones in the summary schedule as desired.
• Analysis and Discussion: Our team facilitates the review of the schedule’s critical path and near critical path(s), evaluating the activities that determine schedule length, optimizing individual activity durations, and shortening the overall schedule duration.

Benefits of AP-Networks’ SERA include:

• Stakeholders aligned on need for credible schedule duration to achieve scope
• Increased understanding of the critical path activities and near critical path activities
• Insight gained to drive focus on activities most likely to shorten schedule(s)
• Credibility in target-setting to drive superior schedule outcomes

AP-Networks’ Cost Estimate Risk Analysis (CERA) is a sister service to SERA and provides a powerful, proven solution for improving cost predictability.